Indonesians feeling the8k8 legit strain from costlier food

The weeklong Eid al-Fitr holiday has brought bittersweet opportunities for Indonesian baker Dewi Indriana. While she is grateful for the increased sales that came when her Muslim-majority nation celebrated the end of the fasting month of Ramadan, Dewi worries about the rising prices of food ingredients like cooking oil and flour.

She is aware that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has crimped supply and pushed up commodity prices, and she frets over the difficult decisions that lie ahead as she seeks to keep her business afloat.

"I have to be (careful) when increasing the prices of some products. (If the prices are too high), the buyers will not come in," Dewi said.

The rapid rise in food prices in the past few months pushed Indonesia's inflation rate to a two-year high of 2.64 percent in March. The higher price of cooking oil is a topic of much debate in the country as Indonesia is the world's largest producer of palm oil. By the end of March, the price of cooking oil soared to a record 23,900 rupiah ($1.70) a kilogram.

On April 27, Indonesian President Joko Widodo banned the export of palm oil to ensure domestic supply and cap the rise in prices. But analysts said the move will not influence price movements over the long term.

Nicholas Mapa, a senior economist at Dutch investment bank ING, said that while the palm oil export ban may temporarily limit food inflation, "it may not be enough to keep price pressure at bay much longer".

" (The US Federal Reserve's) rate hikes and global commodity price spikes will likely still feed through to (Indonesia's) domestic inflation," Mapa said.

Global credit rating agency Fitch expects the export ban to be short-lived, as a prolonged ban could hurt Indonesian palm oil producers' profitability and the livelihoods of millions of workers.

"We think the export ban is unlikely to extend beyond a month or so," Fitch Ratings said, noting that crude palm oil prices are likely to fall sharply as Indonesia's domestic market will be unable to absorb the increased supply, amid the strains on the country's storage infrastructure.

Indonesia's palm oil export ban has also sent ripples across the global vegetable oil market. Vegetable oil prices have been rising in the past few months following supply disruptions from Russia and Ukraine - both key exporters of sunflower oil. The World Food Programme, or WFP, has noted that Indonesia's palm oil export ban "has sparked international trade concerns" as importers worldwide seek out substitutes.

The rising price of cooking oil is just one of the main reasons behind Indonesia's food inflation. Another key concern is the global rise in wheat prices - as Indonesia is among the world's biggest importers of wheat, with annual purchases topping 10 million metric tons. According to the WFP, the price of wheat flour in Indonesia rose 8.3 percent year-on-year in March.

Leonardus Jegho in Jakarta contributed to this story.