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Geopolitical uncertainties and instability and slow global economic recovery will drive global risk higher for Chinese companies' overseas investments, according to the Handbook of Country Risk 2022.
The annual report was published by the China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation, or Sinosure, China's policy-oriented insurer, on Monday. The report, first published in 2005, has served as a reference for Chinese companies seeking to invest overseas.
While delivering the report, Sheng Hetai, president of Sinosure, said that global political risks have risen this year. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reshaped the political, security and energy situation in Europe, he said, and the United States' policy to counter China has severely endangered world peace. World economic recovery has been significantly slowed by factors including the pandemic, conflict and policy issues.
"Looking ahead to 2023, a series of key issues, such as geopolitical uncertainties, slow global economic recovery and some countries' sovereign debts will continue to spell more risks for Chinese companies' overseas investments."
The big-power rivalry will continue to evolve next year, and this will lead to a rise in global political risks, the report said. However, US hegemony and the country's policy of making small circles to counter others may be less appealing.
Moreover, developed countries such as the US and European countries, which have suffered high inflation and weakened economic vitality this year, will inevitably suffer a brief recession next year, the report said. For developing countries, slowing global economic recovery, high inflationary pressure and insufficient policies have exacerbated conditions for their economic growth, and this may lead to more serious capital outflow and sharp depreciation of the currencies of more countries, it said.
"Taking all these elements together, the global economic situation next year will put countries' economic resilience to the test, and China will face more obvious pressure to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment," Sheng said.
Supply chain disruptions
Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in February, global geopolitical and economic risks have risen sharply, and supply chains have been disrupted, he said. In the coming year, the adjustment of the global industrial chain and supply chain may accelerate, and countries with critical resources will further rise in the global industrial chain and supply chain.
Sinosure provided insurance totaling $817.9 billion to Chinese companies from January to November, the report said, 8.6 percent more than in the corresponding period last year. It provided insurance services to about 179,000 Chinese companies, 14 percent more than last year.
He Yun, an associate professor in the School of Public Administration at Hunan University, said that in recent years overseas investment has increasingly been exposed to geopolitical disruptions, financial risks and other external shocks. For Chinese companies, investing overseas is a key piece of their growth strategy, but they need to carefully monitor the markets in which they are investing and adopt a tailored strategy to minimize risk.